I was at a Christening yesterday and saw an old acquaintance… whilst we were waiting to go into the church we got chatting in a small group and he very quickly told us that he received a bit of a shock on Friday… as part of a global rationalisation strategy he was made redundant… He had been in finance all his working life and the past nine years with the same company… and after all things are supposed to be getting better, so the shock is understandable. He explained his role what he had been doing and the reasons for the redundancy... but it was still a shock. We were not alone, in fact there was another three people in the discussion and by chance they were all from finance… two were mutual acquaintances and one did not know my friend… nevertheless within a few minutes all three had suggested he talk with them about a role… two of the three had explained how short staffed they were and how difficult they were finding it to get more qualified staff. I assume today my friend is lining up job interviews and I expect by the end of the week he will have a selection of roles from which to choose… and probably the biggest question will be how many weeks he wants to take off before returning to the workforce…

I am constantly hearing of or coming across situations similar to that which I have outlined above. I am sure most of you who read this will also have some snippets of evidence to support the assertion that despite the GFC there really is a skills shortage and it is chronic.

The GFC was a dramatic event but it has been fast and it has not structurally changed the skills structure of workforces around the world. There is still a fundamental shortage of skilled employees in most developed nations and as companies become more confident and hiring kicks in we can expect to see an even greater shortage of skilled employees than we saw pre GFC.

Even if we are in companies which will be taking a more conservative approach we are all going to feel this shortage. Sometime next year… I expect towards the middle of the second quarter of the calendar year the floodgates will open so to speak and we will begin seeing vastly increased staff mobility. The general consensus around the world, in Australia in particular and less so in NZ, is that the worst of the GFC has passed and from here on in there is cautious optimism. In my view this optimism is going to have a dramatic and very pronounced effect on workforce mobility.

In terms of workforce mobility let’s have a look at what has happened as a result of the GFC… An understandable by-product of the GFC has been the increase in tenure of staff. Support for this argument comes from both a macro understanding of the workforce in relation to the GFC and also more micro anecdotal evidence supporting the same assumption. It is some of this micro evidence that is of great interest, right now across the Frontline Recruitment Group Agencies we are seeing the following general trends…

• Since the establishment of Frontline in 1995 this is the most candidate short (qualified candidates) we have seen the market
• There is a dramatic increase in candidates not accepting offers and
• In many cases there is resentment towards companies for actions taken during the GFC. A key issue with this downturn was the suddenness and savagery of it… People did not have time to adapt and the shock of what happened has left many wounds…

Again I am sure that in most cases readers will also have their own real life evidence of workplace behaviours … but what is building is a backlog… a backlog of employees who will move as soon as they feel confident to do so. I certainly do not profess to be an economist but it seems the one remaining argument which continues to sow some seeds of doubt in employees’ minds is that we may “double dip”… will the economy go backwards again… but as each day goes by even this argument erodes.

So if the floodgates do open and we do see a massive rise in mobility of workers… what can be done… well as usual preparation is a key. The usual strategies of Talent Banking, employee retention initiatives, succession planning, employee attraction programmes… will all become relevant once again… But we should consider going even further than this, not just sticking with what has been the norm, but do something that is a little different instead, something that is a little left field so to speak… The concept worth considering is “Employee Counselling” particularly of mentally dislocated employees… those who have weathered the GFC storm so to speak but have paid a high emotional price. Those employees who have been highly stressed because they feared losing their jobs and their livelihood, those who have suffered as a result of seeing close work mates retrenched, those who are now having to do more with less resources and those who have lived the last 14 months in high anxiety as a result of these extra pressures. Oftentimes people will steel themselves to deal with issues and the fallout only happens later after the worst has passed.

I have heard the GFC described as a battle… in some cases a war… and when wars end there is always fallout… on returning from the battlefront soldiers suffer from what we know now as post traumatic stress syndrome… a delayed reaction to the extreme stress of battle… it may not be too far fetched to think that some employees who have survived the GFC will be suffering similar symptoms as well… exhaustion, lack of focus, overcaution and even resentment towards their employer. These survivors may be some of our best, most passionate, longest serving employees… they could be wearing deep emotional scars and maybe we can help… so consider what can be done to save these people.

From an HR perspective talking with these people is a great start… Job insecurity, increased workloads and uncertainty about their financial future will get to everyone and put a huge additional strain on the most even-tempered employee… And let’s face it, chances are they cannot talk about their anguish to anyone at home either, because they don’t want to worry their families and so many employees just bottle it all up…

So sitting down for a one on one and explaining that there is also a big chance to step up and become even more valuable to the company is one simple strategy to take some stress off people… and don’t underestimate the importance of encouraging your employees to treat themselves right… encourage them to take their breaks, work out regularly, eat well, in short, to look after themselves… But what is most important is to show them that their extra efforts are appreciated and are a big contributing factor to their company making it through the GFC…

My small anecdote at the start of this article is not an isolated case of skilled workers being sought after, there are now early signs that employees will be getting mobile once more… it has not happened yet, but we should be expecting it. The time between now and then is important and for many organisations it is time to act now to stop a possible talent exodus later.